By Amika Limbu
AFTER the exit polls result on Sunday, the handsome hunk Rahul Gandhi must have spent sleepless night. But Rahulbaba, as BJP president Amit Shah calls him, should not worry much. Not all exit polls in past 20 years have accurately predicted the outcome. We are calling this our exact poll, not exit poll.
The worst was in 2004. All pollsters predicted NDA to get 255 seats. However, NDA ended up getting only 187 seats, as many as 68 less than what our great pollsters predicted.
Similarly, the pollsters had predicted that UPA would get 183 seats. However, UPA notched up 219 seats and then formed the government.
So, it is quite possible that exit poll results could fall on their head. They might turn out exactly “ulta pulta.”
UPA will not do as badly as is being predicted. As per our analysis, UPA an analysis done by Indionenews.in of the social media, newspapers articles, general discussions in trains, planes, buses, hotels, gaon ka chaupal, in gardens, among walking friends, among sitting friends, on cellphones, at functions, parties, events, across the country shows that will get 175 to 200 seats while BJP-led NDA will end up 230 to 260 seats.
Our analysis is close to the exit poll done by ABPMajha and News X. All other exit polls including by India Today, Republic TV, News18, Times Now, Republic TV, Bharat, India TV, News 24 have given NDA 300 or 300 plus. We don’t agree to this and we have our own analysis coming from different states to arrive at our conclusions.
Unlike exit polls where sample size could be as small as 1000 or even 100 voters to the maximum of 20,000 voters (impossible to believe), our forecast is based on the mood among the general people, the discussions in home and outside, the strong claims, the atmosphere prevailing, robust arguments of the voters, so on and so forth.
Remember in a constituency where 10 lakh or more voters have cast their votes, how can 1000 or a maximum of 22,000 voters could foretell the outcome. Impossible. Similarly, how can we believe voters are speaking the truth. Many voters say something else because they fear the one who asks the question could be from other party.
While in states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, exit polls have predicted a sweep like situation for NDA, we believe the seats will be shared by both UPA and NDA in equal measure if not one or two seats here and there.
Similarly, in Maharashtra, Congress-NCP will at least 18 seats if not 20. Most pollsters have given them less than 10 seats. The BJP-Sena will end up with around 30 seats.
In Delhi, we believe AAP will get 2 seats and Congress 2 while BJP will get three seats. In Karnataka, Congress will get more seats than BJP though BJP managed to create lot of noise here.
In UP which has the highest 80 seats, SP-BSP will steal the show with at least 46 seats while Congress will get 4 seats. BJP will end up with 30 seats or even less. BJP will suffer the big blow here.
In Bihar, UPA and NDA are locked in a close tussle. In Kerala, UPA will run to glory. Likewise in Tamil Nadu. In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee will emerge as the strongest leader bagging maximum seats. BJP will also put up a good show what with BJP president Amit Shah leading from the front here. In Orissa, it will be a Naveen Patnaik show. In Goa, Congress will make a comeback of sorts. In Punjab, Congress will demolish the BJP. In Haryana, the outcome will be equal.
In Varanasi, Prime Minister Modi will create a new record of margin of victory.
Similarly, in Satara, Udyanraje will also heading for a huge victory. His name could enter Guiness Book of World Records, given his massive popularity. In Patnasaheb, Shatrughan Sinha will win for a record third time. In Guradaspur, Sunny will canter to victory. His mother, Hema Malini, will again register a big victory. In Asansol, Moon Moon Sen will be over the moon after poll results. IN Basirhar, the beautiful actress Nusrat Jahan will win with handsome margin. In Mumbai seat, actress Urmila Matondkar will emerge victorious in a close fight. In UP, Dimple Yadav will win and so will Jaya Prada.
In Baramati, Supriya Sule, daughter of will win hands down. In Maval, Parth Pawar, son of Ajit Pawar, will struggle to win, be might spring a suprise or might go down fighting. In Shirur, actor Amol Kolhe will fight till the end but Shivajirao Adhalrao-Patil looks like to create poll history in Pune. In Pune city, Girish Bapat will win with a good margin of votes. In Mumbai, Milind Deora will win in close contest. In Raigad, Sunil Tatkare will send Sena’s Anant Geete packing. In Vidharbha, Nitin Gadkari will romp home with ease. In Ahmednagar, Sujay Vikhe-Patil will score his maiden victory. In Madha, Sanjay Shinde will win one-side, much to Sharad Pawar’s delight.