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Stock Market Weekly Outlook – Gaurav Bora , Market Expert

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Gaurav Bora

Trade deal will be the major driver for the market.

Trade deal will be the major driver for the market till that market may remain in consolidation; Nifty (-0.1%), Sensex (+0.1%). Mid Cap & Small Cap index lost -0.30% and -1.3% respectively in this week. FIIs sold equities worth 321 crore while DIIs sold equities worth 515 crore. PSU Bank, Telecom and Real Estate stocks moved higher during the later part of the week. PSU Banks zoomed out after SC delivered verdict in Essar Steel case, Supreme Court in favor of committee to the creditors. Telecom stocks rallied on report that govt is mulling putting minimum price for calls and data. Trade deal between the world’s two largest economies will be a major trigger for the markets across the globe; United States and China are getting close to a trade agreement. Catholic Syrian Bank IPO will hit market in coming week from 20th Nov to 22nd Nov and price band might be 190-200/share, Our view for the IPO is subscribe as we may see nearly 50% listing gain at the opening.

CPI inflation is at a 16-month high, primarily driven by higher food prices, Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.99 percent in September and 3.38 percent in October 2018. India’s WPI eased to 0.16% in October, it’s lowest in more than three years, on the back of a fall in prices of fuel and manufactured goods. The winter session of the Parliament will begin from November 18 and will continue till December 13, we may expect government announces any fresh stimulus to stem the economy. China’s reluctance to commit to a specific amount of farm purchases remains a sticking point in the talks, however Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said there was a “very high probability” that the United States would reach a final agreement on a phase one trade deal with China. The Indian market has been witnessing sustained capital inflow since the month of September after the hopes of the US-China trade deal started getting stronger, progress in US China trade deal will ensure sustained inflow of foreign funds will infuse positivity into the market which may take the equity benchmarks near their fresh all-time highs. Crude oil prices rose nearly 2 percent to USD 63.34/bbl, due to optimism over a US-China trade deal. Oil prices have been subdued of late due to concerns that the weakness in the global economy will curtail the demand for oil; increased oil prices may impact Indian equities as it distorts India’s fiscal deficit. Indian rupee appreciated by 18 paise to close at 71.78 against USD on Friday and extending gains for a second day; on a weekly basis, the INR depreciated 50 paise.

Monday market may open on flat note as SGX Nifty at 11,926 (-18). Nifty should sustained above 11,891 levels, momentum to continue in the coming week but if index fails to hold 11,891 levels then index may head to 11,802-11,700 levels. On upper side 12,000 will act as a stiff resistance for the market. India VIX fell by 4% closed to 15.03 levels. On the options front, maximum Call open interest (OI) is at 12,000 followed by 11,900 strike while maximum Put OI is at 11,900 followed by 11,800 strike. Current option data shows a broad trading range between 11,800 to 12,200 levels on the Nifty. On lower side Nifty’s crucial support at 11,891 levels, on the higher side immediate hurdle is at 12,000.

Data shows we may see upside above 12,000 in coming week. So traders are advised to take fresh buy position above 12,000 we may see nifty rally to 12,200.

FOR INVESTORS THIS IS BUYING OPPORTUNITY ACCOUMLATE QUALITY STOCKS ON EVERY DIP, AS THIS VOLATILITY IS BECAUSE OF MAJOR EVENT BUT FUNDAMENTALS ARE VERY MUCH INTACT. VOLATILITY IS FRIEND OF INVESTOR.

Top Gainers of the Week:

Bharti Airtel (+5.73%)

ICICI Bank (+4.45%)

Yes Bank (+3.39%)

Bajaj Finserv (+2.55%)

Kotak Mahindra Bank (+2.45%)

Top Losers of the Week:

Indiabulls Housing (-11.77)

Vedanta (-11.71%)

Hindalco (-8.50%)

UPL (-8.20%)

Adani Port (-6.19%)Gaurav Bora 
(Market Expert)

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