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Market will keep hawk’s eye on Trump visit…

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In coming short week market will focus on Donald Trump’s India Visit later this month; Nifty (+0.1%), Sensex (+0.3%). Mid Cap & Small Cap index fell by -1.5% and -1% respectively in past week. FIIs bought equities worth 11 crore while DIIs sold equities worth 793 crore. Corona Virus remains one of the key issue to watch out for global markets including India, Chinese health officials confirmed cases have jumped to over 68,500 and death toll in China has climbed to 1,665. Healthcare, IT stocks were top performers while Auto, Capital Goods, Metal, PSU, Reality and Oil & Gas were losers during last week. This week will be short week with only four trading sessions as the market will remain shut on February 21 on account of Mahashivratri.

Market will now focus on Donald Trump’s India visit later this month. In the coming week, the market would focus on export-oriented and automobile related stocks. Dmart’s founder and promoter RK Damani is now India’s second richest person with a wealth of $17.9 bn, Damani is now 2nd only to Reliance Chairman Mukesh Ambani who is the richest person in Asia. Dmart announced that its promoters will offload 2.28% stake through OFS route as a base price of Rs 2,049 per share, there is no discount offered to retail investors. Dmart OFS opened for non-retail investors on February 14 which was fully subscribed on the first day and retail investors are allowed to place bids only on February 17, promoters have been selling their stake through OFS and QIP to meet SEBI’s compliance requirement with minimum shareholding norms and to bring down the stake to 75% by March 31, 2020.

Delhi govt is likely to announce merger of 10 PSU banks to create four big banks and merger process may be completed by April, last year govt had announced four major public sector banks mergers and bringing down their total number from 27 to 12. FM had announced tentative amounts of capital infusion in 10 PSBs. PNB, OBC and United Bank of India will be merged and it will become country’s second-largest lender. Syndicate Bank will be merged with Canara Bank, Allahabad Bank will be merged with Indian Bank while Andhra Bank and Corporation Bank will be merged with Union Bank of India.

India’s retail inflation in January stood at 7.59% against 7.35% in December 2019, while January core inflation was seen at 4.8% against 3.7% in December. WPI for January stood at 3.1% against 2.59% during December 2019. Since the budget USDINR has been consolidating in range of Rs 71.10-71.50, last week USDINR closed on 71.36 against previous week closing of 71.40. In coming week we can see some FIIs participation in Dmart OFS and these FIIs inflows may support rupee. Oil prices remained under pressure however oil prices raised more than 1% in a week since early January, gains are backed by expectations that OPEC and non OPEC countries will implement deeper output cuts to offset slowing demand in China due to corona virus.

Monday market may open on flat note as SGX Nifty at 12,085 (-45). Nifty has managed to hold 12,000 levels but failed to close above 50-DEMA 12,126 on the weekly basis, market sentiment may remain positive as long as Nifty remains above 12,000. Again on upper side 12,200 will act as a stiff resistance for the market, if Nifty manages to close above 12,200 then only we see break out from consolidation. On lower side 12,000 will act as crucial support. India VIX fell by 3% at 13.61 from previous weekly closing of 14. On the options front, maximum Call open interest (OI) is at 12,200 followed by 12,300 strike while maximum Put OI is at 12,000 followed by 12,100 strike. Current option data shows a narrow trading range between 12,000 to 12,300 levels on Nifty. On lower side Nifty’s immediate support at 12,000 levels, on the higher side immediate hurdle is at 12,200.

Data shows we may see upside above 12,200 in coming week. So traders are advised to take fresh buy position above 12,200 we may see nifty rally to 12,300-12,400.

Top Gainers of the Week:
UPL (+8.94%)
Bharti Airtel (+4.74%)
Hind Unilever (+4.40%)
Dr Reddys (+4.35%)
Reliance (+3.76%)

Top Losers of the Week:
Indusind Bank (-9.45%)
Mahindra & Mahindra (-8.10%)
Tata Steel (-7.74%)
Grasim Industries (-5.66%)
Coal India (-5.57%)

Gaurav Bora
(Market Expert)

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