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Trend Reversal Can be Witnessed…


Gaurav Bora ( Market Expert)

As suggested nifty shown consolidation in passed week, after making historic high nifty shown profit booking. Nifty lost 1.2% and Sensex lost 1.2% in last week. While Midcap & Smallcap index outperformed gained 0.9% and 0.6% respectively. Nifty may show trend reversal in coming week, last movement recovery observed in closing session on Friday. The volatility is likely to remain high across the market; we repeat our cautious stance and suggest focusing more on stock specific movement during the corrective phase. In last week FIIs bought equities worth Rs 4408.26 crore, while DIIs sold equities worth Rs 6,283.73 crore. FIIs continued the buying in the fifth straight month buying equities worth Rs 23,874.67 so far in February, on the contrary DIIs sold equities worth 16,638.46 crore.

IPO of Heranba Industries will open for bidding on February 23 and close on February 25, IPO comprises of a fresh issue of Rs 60 crore and an offer for sale of 90,15,000 equity shares by promoters. RailTel Corporation was subscribed 42.4 times during February 16-18, the shares will start trading on the bourses with effect from February 26. Nureca a B2C company engaged in the business of home healthcare and wellness products is likely to get listed in equity shares on February 26. Daily cases of COVID-19 in the country climbed to about 14,000 after nearly 22 days and taking India’s tally to 1,09,77,387, while the recoveries surged to 1,06,78,048 which translates to a national recovery rate of 97.27% and the case fatality rate stands at 1.42%. Rising COVID-19 cases in some parts of the country worried investors. GDP data for Q3 is likely to be released on Friday Feb 26; GDP data for the Q3 to show signs of economic recovery may add fuel for market recovery. The major key corporate earnings season has been ended but there are still about 22 companies to release the December quarter scorecard in the coming week.

Key factors for the week:

  • Quarterly Results.
  • Rising COVID 19 cases.
  • GDP data for Q3.
  • Listing of RailTel & Nureca

Technical View:

Nifty formed a bearish engulfing candle pattern on the weekly chart which represents trend reversal. But it breached its 5-Days EMA as well as 13-Days EMA on its way down on the daily charts. If Nifty sustains 15,145 levels then we may see recovery towards 15,290 and 15,419, while below 14,898 we may see 14,750. The maximum Put open interest at 15,000 followed by 14,000 strike and is also likely to act as a major support in the coming week. Maximum call open interest at 15,500 followed by 15,200 and maximum put open interest at 15,000 followed by 14,000. Nifty could trade in the range between 14,750-15,400. If market sustains above 15,000 then recovery can be seen. The volatility index IndiaVIX is 22.25 levels and which has to cool off in coming week for recovery.

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